Should Royals Fans Be Worried About Cole Ragans’ Four-Seam Velocity? (2024)

The Royals won a crucial first game in Fenway Park on Friday, beating the Red Sox 6-1. The win tied the Royals with the Red Sox for the last Wild Card spot in the American League, and the combination of Twins and Guardians losses on Friday night helped Kansas City move up in the AL Central standings as well.

The hitting indeed came alive in Boston on Friday night. Four of the Royals’ six runs came in the first two innings. Furthermore, Bobby Witt, Jr. and MJ Melendez hit their 16th and 11th home runs this season, respectively. It was nice to see Bobby get some practice in for the Home Run Derby next week in Arlington.

While the hitting was undoubtedly noteworthy for the Royals on Friday night, the game’s biggest star was Cole Ragans, who looked masterful in his 20th start of the season. Ragans went seven innings for the second-consecutive start and kept a hot Red Sox offense in check (they rank in the top 10 in average, OPS, and home runs).

Ragans has been a revelation for the Royals since coming over from Texas in the Aroldis Chapman trade a little over a year ago. In addition to posting the stellar metrics that Jake highlighted in the Tweet above, Ragans has a 3.4 fWAR, the fourth-highest mark of any pitcher in baseball. He is only 0.1 fWAR behind Atlanta’s Chris Sale and Detroit’s Tarik Skubal and 0.4 behind the White Sox’s Garrett Crochet. All three pitches will be joining Ragans in Arlington for the All-Star game.

Despite Ragans’ dominance this season and emergence as the “ace” of this Royals rotation (though Seth Lugo has undoubtedly made his case for the title at times), there has been a recent development that has been concerning to Royals fans and anyone who rosters Ragans in fantasy baseball leagues:

Ragans’ decline in four-seam fastball velocity.

According to Savant, Ragans is averaging 95.9 MPH on his four-seamer, 0.6 MPH down from a season ago. While that doesn’t seem too bad at the surface level, he has seen a 1.5 MPH decline in four-seam velocity since April, as seen in the pitch velocity month-by-month chart below.

From a game-to-game end, the chart looks less concerning than the month-by-month pitch velocity chart. That said, there’s a noticeable trend of Ragans’ four-seam velocity declining, which is cause for concern regarding his outlook after the All-Star break.

At the Major League level, the 116.2 IP Ragans have thrown this season is a career-high. It is also the highest innings total in a single season in his career as a professional, as the most innings he threw in a season in the Minors was in 2022 when he accumulated 94.2 IP with Double-A Frisco and Triple-A Round Rock in the Rangers organization.

Therefore, is the fastball regression a warning sign of things to come, whether it’s a regression in performance or a possible sign of a lingering injury? Or is there something else at play with Ragans and his four-seam velocity?

Four-Seam Pitch Quality Remains Roughly the Same From Last Year

Even though the velocity is down on the four-seamer this year, there hasn’t been a tremendous difference in the quality of the four-seam fastball based on the PLV metrics.

Here are the PLV pitch characteristic charts of Ragans’ four-seamer from this season and last year. For the 2023 sample, I only included his data from his stint with the Royals, which started on July 15th (he had some previous appearances with the Rangers in relief last season, but he was a much different pitcher stuff and pitch mix-wise).

Royals fans can see the 0.9 MPH difference in velocity. However, the extension, arm-side break, adjusted vertical approach angle, and plvLoc+ are all the same or have a difference of one in their particular measurement. The only significant difference between Ragans’ four-seamer this year and last season beyond velocity is that his four-seam PLV is 18 points higher than a year ago, which is a good trend.

When looking at his four-seamer from last year and this year by tape, there also doesn’t seem to be any discernable difference in their quality sans velocity.

I found a four-seamer that Ragans threw against Boston last year and one that he threw in his previous start against the Rockies. I ensured they were both called strike pitches in the same part of the strike zone. The four-seamer against the Rockies registered at 93.9 MPH, two MPH slower than his four-seamer thrown a year ago in Boston. However, it didn’t seem like the pitches were all that different in shape and spin.

Again, there’s not much difference in the two pitches beyond velocity. If anything, the clip’s second pitch seems to have more spin and upward movement than the four-seamer thrown in 2023.

The four-seam data, both at career and season ends, also confirm that Ragans may be sacrificing some velocity for increased spin. He has seen a positive trend in the four-seam spin rate from the previous two seasons and each month this year.

Thus, this isn’t a “ring the alarm” scenario for Ragans, especially when evaluating his four-seam pitch quality. The pitch may not sport the same high-end velocity that it did a season ago, but it’s pretty much the same in most other categories (with slight improvements in spin and PLV).

The Results Have Arguably Been Better With the Four Seamer in 2024

Royals fans have seen from the data above that Ragans’ four-seam PLV has improved from 5.11 when he was with the Royals to 5.29 this season. That indicates that Ragans can succeed with the four-seamer, even with the velocity difference.

How have the results specifically been though with the pitch?

His four-seamer on a Savant run value end has been leaps and bounds better than his four-seamer in 2023 and even 2022.

His +14 run value on the four-seamer is 18 runs better than his mark in 2023, and 27 runs better than his mark in 2022. Royals fans read that right. 27 RUNS BETTER! That’s an insane improvement.

According to Savant, Ragans’ four-seam run value is the fourth-best four-seamer on a run-value end this season. He ranks behind Atlanta’s Reynaldo Lopez, Cleveland’s Cade Smith, and Seattle’s George Kirby.

Compared to last season, his four-seamer is generating 3.9% fewer whiffs and has seen a 5.8% decline in K%. However, hitters only produce a wOBA of .287 on the four-seamer, down from the .341 wOBA on the pitch in 2023. Ragans has induced more “unproductive” contact against the four-seamer, which explains the significant progression in the four-seam run value in 2024.

Granted, the xwOBA of .322 is 17 points higher than his mark a season ago. Conversely, the 43.9% hard-hit rate on the four-seamer, 8.7% better than a year ago, bodes well about hitters’ second-half outlook against Ragans’ four-seamer.

It has been interesting to see how Ragans has opted to locate his four-seamer this year compared to last. Here’s a look at his PLV four-seam location heatmaps from this year and 2023 (his tenure only with the Royals).

In 2023, Ragans was much more specific about where he wanted to command his four-seamer. Against both hitters, he located it up and away primarily, which Royals fans can see in the dark red-colored areas in the 2023 heatmap. Whether righties or lefties, Ragans approached them the same way and produced solid results.

Here’s an example of Ragans locating a four-seamer right in that red dot of the heatmap against left-handed hitter Kerry Carpenter of the Tigers. The pitch resulted in a strikeout.

In 2024, Ragans’s four-seam approach is very different from last year’s, not just overall but also how he attacks left- and right-handed hitters.

Ragans has opted to throw the ball more in the middle to lower end of the strike zone against right-handed hitters compared to a season ago. Against lefties, he has focused on dotting the four corners of the strike zone rather than one specific area.

A big reason for this may be that hitters performed better against Ragans’ four-seamer when thrown up in the zone, specifically zones 2 and 3, in 2023. Even though he generated more whiffs in that area, hitters also made more productive contact on pitches in that zone when they connected, as seen in the zone chart below.

This season, because he opts to throw his four-seamer lower in the zone, especially against right-handed hitters, his wOBA numbers have improved overall, especially in those upper parts of the zone. Zone 7 is high, but there’s a lot of blue in nearly every other area, which is an encouraging sign as we advance.

Ragans’ switch in his four-seam command approach has yielded positive results in the first half of the 2024 season.

Let’s hope that the four-seam approach succeeds in the second half, especially if the Royals look to advance to the postseason in August and September.

Robust Secondary Offerings Helping Four-Seamer (Especially When Sequenced Correctly)

Ragans’ secondary pitches need to continue to be effective for that second-half success, especially with the four-seamer to continue despite the decline in velocity.

On a PLV end, the first-half results have been encouraging, especially compared to what he did a season ago.

This season, Ragans’ overall PLV is 5.19, which is 24 points better than his PLV in 2023. All four of his pitches are above the 5.0 PLV mark. That is a vast improvement from last year when only his slider was above that 5.0 baseline.

Ragans has notably improved his breaking and offspeed offerings this season. His curveball PLV is 19 points better than a season ago. While his slider is down 14 points, he is throwing the slider more, and it still has a PLA of 2.64, which is only eight points higher than his slider PLA last year.

Last night against the Red Sox was a prime example of Ragans generating a lot of chases and whiffs with his two main breaking offerings.

His changeup has improved by 38 points in PLV and has been his best pitch on a whiff end this season. It generates a 48.6% whiff rate for the season, a 14.2% improvement from a year ago. It also has a put-away rate of 25.7%, which is his best pitch in that category.

Last night, Ragans was dealing with his changeup against the Red Sox. He generated a chase percentage of 56.2% and a whiff rate of 58.8%, both eye-popping marks.

The changeup success is a big reason why Ragans can get away with a lower fastball velocity and being thrown lower in the strike zone compared to a season ago.

The changeup averages 85.4 MPH, a 10.5 MPH difference from his four-seamer. When sequenced correctly, the four-seam and changeup can be problematic for opposing hitters. Let’s compare the location data of the four-seamer and changeup this year via PLV heatmap data.

He throws the changeup and four-seamer, both middle-middle, more often than the league-average pitcher. That could be a red flag for any average pitcher. With Ragans’ strong pitch quality on both pitches and excellent sequencing, Ragans minimizes damage with pitches in that zone and excels in getting batters out.

An excellent example of Ragans’ strong sequencing with his fastball and changeup was his June 24th at-bat against Miami’s Otto Lopez.

Ragans starts him off with an 84.3 MPH changeup low in the zone, which causes Lopez to swing and miss. On the next pitch, Ragans ramps it up in the same part of the zone with a 94.7 MPH. Because Lopez got fooled by the changeup in the previous pitch, he’s sitting change, and he gets buckled by the four-seamer, which is called a strike.

Just like that, Lopez is down 0-2 to one of the best pitchers in baseball. Lopez ended up flying out to right fielder Hunter Renfroe in the at-bat.

That kind of sequencing and substantial usage of secondary pitches will help Ragans succeed in the second half, even with the dip in four-seam velocity.

Overall Thoughts on Ragans’ Four-Seam Velocity

There comes a time for many pitchers when they need to change things up to see more long-term success. With so much data available at hitters’ disposal, pitchers need to be able to tweak things slightly over their career and even during a season so they don’t become too predictable.

I do not think that the Royals fans need to see the decline in fastball velocity as a sign of concern in the long term. Do I think there’s some fatigue there? Perhaps, especially since he’s already passed his inning total by 20.2 IP.

However, I think Ragans is sacrificing some velocity for control.

Ragans isn’t just rearing back and throwing the four-seamer up in the zone like he did a year ago. He’s generating fewer whiffs compared to 2023 (four percent, to be specific), but his called-strike percentage is up 1.2% with the four-seamer. That better command with the four-seamer allows his other secondary pitches to succeed, especially his changeup.

I know many non-Royals fans expect Ragans’ sharp decline sometime soon. And it’s understandable, considering that Ragans doesn’t have the track record of other aces in the division like Detroit’s Skubal or Minnesota’s Pablo Lopez (though Lopez is going through his share of struggles this year).

That said, pointing to Ragans’ velocity as an indicator of his impending doom isn’t the way to do it. That approach is particularly flawed when one looks at his pitch-by-pitch velocity chart from last night’s start. He was throwing just as hard at the end of the start as he did at the beginning.

For now, Ragans’ four-seam velocity is something to monitor but not panic about from a Royals fan’s perspective.

This, for now, seems to be a sign that Ragans is becoming a more complete pitcher and not just a “high velocity” strikeout pitcher. The latter pitcher model tends to fade out more quickly over their careers.

I think Royals fans are eager to see Ragans have more All-Star appearances in his career beyond this first one in Arlington.

Photo Credit: DAVID BUTLER II/ USA TODAY Sports

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